Showing posts with label Online Public Relations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Online Public Relations. Show all posts

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Reflections on PR productivity

jellybean1233  http://bit.ly/nzXw81
The Broadgate Mainland survey is a useful contributor in the development of improved productivity for the PR sector.

We need to do something fast to reduce the effects of a perceived professional diversity trap brought about as a consequence of the present structure and practices in PR.

The survey makes us very aware of the key role that a good old fashioned web site plays in Financial (and a lot of other) public/media relations.

In addition, it offers insights into the role of social media as part of the communications mix that influences journalists and journalism.

ABC data:
A blow to an already struggling industry
The Spectator http://bit.ly/pWC84N

Because press agentry is such a big part of current PR practice, and because of the attrition of print media (see left), it is important that research into the interface between PR people and the press is better understood and that the interplay between PR and Journalistic actors is made much more productive.
















Source: Paid Content http://bit.ly/aMGo7e

The PR industry which is so dependant on media relations for its living has to acknowledge that it needs a thriving media sector to survive until it has adapted to the new environment. 









The new environment is one where there are fewer editorial pages, fewer journalists per editorial page and where Radio, TV and digital (including social media) are even more important.

It is now urgent that we develop, across the industry, some response to the implosion of the traditional media.

There are a number of other indicators in the Broadgate Mainland survey  that show us where we might begin to look to make the PR industry much more effective and build a defence for the sector.

As I have pointed out elsewhere, the PR industry is not the first to have a productivity issue and that we can learn from their experience.

In the case of media relations, the best productivity driver is going to be a combination of quality management, cost reduction and satisfying the media that will eventually emerge from the ashes of the present industry.

It is not the place of this blog to do all the research and to make recommendations to the industry and show it teaches best practice. 

I can point out that PR is not alone, there is precedent and how research can inform the industry to help it become better at its job.



In a post in May, I showed the anatomy of a news story (the killing of Osama Bin Laden). It was evident from the findings that there is an interplay between a range of media for all good stories. It is not one medium or another it is all media that really counts.

In the meantime, who would not recognise a journalistic motivator when given this gem from Broadgate Mainland: "The number of hits a story receives has become the most popular measure of journalist success, followed by how an article is shared online." What this is telling us is that the media and the PR industry both have to take a multi-media view of media relations.

From this, the PR industry can begin to assemble the information it needs to be more productive against a backdrop of a declining, but still critical, media relations practice.

Online readership analysis – is bigger better?
 Show me numbers
http://bit.ly/nZfF2K
Here is an example:If journalists are motivated by the web effects of their stories, is the PR industry obsessed with getting stories published that achieve above the average  number of online page views for their stories in the publication's website?

First we need the data (not hard - see graph) and then know what these data mean for practice.

It is by examining these research findings and others that we can begin to find out what high quality looks like.

For some it is the creativity of the original idea established in the strategy. For others, it may be the quality of writing and for another it may be way a story is pitched to the busy journalist.

But for the journalist what is gold plated?

Well, if the survey is to be believed, a happy editor and publisher is a good start and that means good clean original copy that can be used in the publication, blog and Twitter with a minimum of fuss and with every chance that it will go viral the instant 'enter' is clicked.

For enhanced productivity, we can see that more research is needed and then recommendations can be made, best practice can be developed and practitioners and students can be inspired.

Having a sense of what we need to deliver by way of quality, can we gain some idea of what we seek by way of cost reduction?

Productivity tools may be helpful http://bit.ly/nSrBTS
The practitioner should now be informed about how to manage time and resource to achieve out-takes.

Hit rate, that is, the number of relevant citations matching the campaign objectives (citations in selected magazines, web sites, social media etc should all count today), is a way of measuring out-take. Too many citation or too few citations in selected media are inefficient. This means that setting realistic out-take objectives is important (and because 'all publicity is good publicity' remains a top priority for a lot of clients, now is the time to check them for blood stained knuckles).

Time/cost ratio of output to out-take is what the industry needs to understand and work on. Another way of looking at press relations is the the reach and frequency of citations in selected media per input hour/cost.

What the table (above) is really saying, and it is only one of many productivity tools that can be used, is that there is another way of distributing press releases that has an inherent  and minimum10% productivity advantage. In an industry that grew 13% last year and which is outperforming the market profitability should be brilliant. But its not. Essentially, the industry is living on borrowed time and the long hours of a measly paid workforce.

When looking at services, in house practitioners and agencies should look at their functionality AND productivity gain. Today week Precise launched its new combined monitoring and media contact service.

Here is a case of an integrated service that could offer productivity advantages. But it is a service a million miles from the industry that persists in wanting dusty old paper press clippings as evidence of effectiveness.

Now my cry goes up... who in the PR industry is going to take productivity seriously and take it to the CIPR, PRCA, the universities and other major agencies of the profession?

The industry needs press relations but it also needs to mitigate press relations damage to its productivity.

The case for internet mediated PR to avoid the professional diversity trap

Having identified from the PRCA/PRW survey that the PR industry needs to face up to a big productivity gap and a professional diversity trap, It is time to see what can realistically be done.

In this post, I will look at the development of internet based PR services as being an area for industry investors and why it should be an area worth a close look by the PRCA and CIPR (which are both doing quite a lot of work at the agency end of digital PR practice) and academia (which is floundering).

For every £1 the UK PR industry contributes, the rest of the economy contributes £177. If we look at these data more closely, this is an overly comfortable position and will deteriorate.

As the economy returns to 2008 levels PR's contribution, unless productivity grows fast) will drop to a ratio of about £1:£227 over perhaps five years (depending on how fast the UK can make up the massive hole the last recession made in national wealth creation). This means that the PR industry needs to act now or shrink back in the pecking order of significant sectors and, at the same time, witness the professional diversity trap becoming worse.

For an industry worth £7.5 billion we can see the contribution of the PR sector in a global context from this graph.

The PR industry in the UK has some things going for it which will stand it in good stead if it grasps the nettle.






First of all, this is a country that is used to making its way as an entrepĂ´t economy and by providing services.






So, it may be sensible to look at some of the growth areas and see how they might give the PR industry the lift it needs.


Internet mediated PR is an area of growth that might prove valuable. Getting ahead of the curve so that we can expert expertise would be good for PR productivity.



Among the top economies, the UK does not have a large number of internet users but this may mean that other countries may be valuable expert markets.






This would only be true if the UK could call on a sound base of users and expertise.

And in this case the UK is among the top three countries for Internet use per head of population.





In addition, the UK population is ahead of the curve in the fast accelerating next generation of communication. UK people are more addicted to their mobiles than any other country bar Russia.






Of course, the markets relevant to this sector of PR will need good upload and download speeds and so a measure of this capability is important.





What this UN data is telling us is that the UK is a good place for the PR industry to develop advanced Internet Mediated Public Relations practice and services and an excellent centre for the development services for other, and especially emerging markets.



In PR we are acutely aware of the human condition and so the UN Human Development Report is relevant to help identify markets where stimulation of human development is significant.




With closer analysis of the data, the UN HDI report may also give the PR industry some clue as to where the most relevant markets may be for enhanced online PR services.

There is work to be done to develop the opportunities for the PR sector.

Clearly, these data skim the surface but as part of a contribution towards improving PR productivity to mitigate the professional diversity trap facing the PR industry, I thought it might help PR industry thinking.


Sources: United Nations accessed via Google Public Data Explorer http://bit.ly/pOqBcO

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

How can we make the PR industry more productive and profitable?

Mac Funamizu

Over the weekend I stuck my neck out and suggested that the PR industry needed to be more selective in its activities to release practitioners from the low paid, low productivity trap, short term future it faced by being so immersed in press relations.

Yesterday, I suggested that the industry is a poor performer among a range of sectors with significantly better productivity.

Peter Smith took me to task. He asked if I had any solutions!

In this post I want to extend my brief reply to him in the CIPR group in Linkedin. Here I explore some of the ways I believe the PR industry can escape the low cost trap it has got itself into and evolve into a much more powerful profession.

I did make the point that to see how we can enhance the profession, there is a case for looking at different sectors to see what they have done.

At this time, as the Fourth Estate, Parliament and the Police squabble of the role of journalists and their place in PR, we too can have the same debate. There is a good case for PR to look much more closely at the value of the involvement of journalists in PR. Much of the argument I exercised in my post last Saturday. Today, I would extend those arguments a little. There is a place for a form of press officer to be employed in building and maintaining relationships between and organisation and its press (radio and TV) news journalist publics. They can be drawn from the media, re-trained and deployed. In the same way, there is a case for similar skills in online video media, text based social media, Website design and deployment, SEO, social and event organisation for face to face relationship management, Augmented Reality, widgetry and so forth.

No doubt, as the profession evolves clients will expect PR agencies to have such skills available as a matter of course.

However, having such skills available will not achieve the sea change needed by the PR industry.

First the industry must be much more ambitious in what it wants to achieve. It might, for example set itself the target of being in the top quartile of economic sectors by way of productivity (using all three of the methodologies usually associated with economic productivity evaluation).

Secondly, the industry might, just as other industries have done, go to the PR and management colleges to identify how the industry can seek more productive services, make existing products and services more effective (profitable), train for and deploy them.

Thirdly, the PR sector needs take corporate management and practitioners along with it. No mean task and there will be exemplars and detractors and huge resistance.

The Chartered Institute of Marketing now includes a good module on Reputation Management as part of its Diploma. There is a good case for the PR institutions such as the CIPR, PRCA, IABC and the PR universities to make sure that senior management (the people who employ marketing directors/mangers) understand that press relations and reputation management are only a small part of the PR whole.

I do not want this post to be too overshadowed by the News of the World, hacking story but, it is by no means a co-incidence that a policeman thought that a News of the World journalist was his answer to solving his PR needs. Had the PR industry made its role clear, he would not today be appearing before a Parliamentary Committee.

Of course, it is reasonable to ask what kind of changes would David Phillips envisage that could make so much difference? Is this just whistling in the dark as the PR industry looses face because a bunch of ill informed politicians and policemen joined some equally poorly informed industrialist hired inadequates to 'do their PR'?

In all I would like to see a three fold increase in PR productivity over three years.

The plan will have to consider where early improvements in current practice should be made; where change can be implemented with lowest disruption and optimum return and finally how the sector can move towards greater reliance on advanced productive diversity in practice as well as people.

This means that:

1. A large proportion of the improvement would have to come from PR as it is practised today. That is, largely predicated on press relations and events management.
2. A range of enhanced value activities will need to be exploited which will inevitably mean a move up market into management consultancy and a move sideways to create greater breadth and depth in relationship management (and thereby reputation and brand enhancement).
3. A very significant deployment of opinion to show the value of a holistic approach to management of relationships by the most senior management of, even the largest, institutions.

There is a case of examining other industries which have been in a similar dilemma. Can the PR industry look at other sectors to get some idea of what is possible?

I was working in Bradford in the 1960's when the textile industry was imploding and in manufacturing in the 1980's when we saw carnage in areas like machine tools, car manufacturing and many others.

As I alluded to in my post in Linkedin, the companies and whole sectors that came through these times did a number of extra ordinary things.

Today, the apparel industry in the UK is strong and the fashion industry is worth £21 billion.

One only has to think of the high levels of productivity and quality achieved by the motor manufacturers by Nissan in Sunderland and Honda in Swindon or the Airbus aircraft manufacturing capability to see just how much can change when the effort is put in.

The £100 billion internet industry and the highly productive music industries in the UK are examples of how success can come out of adversity once the people involved realise the opportunities available and the production and change that is required to become globally competitive.

In examining what other sectors have achieved, can PR learn the lessons and move forward?

I can imagine some of the first things that the PR industry can do.

The first is to look at under performing activities and either ship them out to low cost suppliers or automated the process.

In almost every PR office and agency in the land there are interns. Many of them do lowly jobs like filling envelopes, maintaining libraries of magazines and newspapers, prepare clip books and other tasks that consume time and are labour intensive.

The task here is to look at the lowest paid people, examine the tasks they perform and the reasons for them and the enhance such activities to become less labour intensive, higher value and profitable.

If, for example the library activities (press clips, evaluation reports and magazine libraries) of interns was transformed into corporate intelligence, and insights to allow deeper understanding and acquisition of knowledge for all the client board of directors, the mundane jobs would become interesting and very valuable. So much of these tasks can be transformed using modern technologies.

At the same time some activities can be shipped out such that, for example, filling envelopes could be part of corporate social responsibility programmes giving work to the most disadvantaged in our society.

Having turned the intern's most dreary work into a highly significant, intellectually challenging and adsorbing services and removed the lowest value add activities, an immediate advantage is available to every PR office in the country.

What then of the next lowest paid member of staff. Here again, close examination of the activity, its transformation from low value to highest value can be achieved with imagination and application.

A typical example is the (I really can't believe I am writing this) chore of researching and building media and other lists.

Part of the role of the new intern activity will identify those clusters of interest (the nexus of values) and the people with particular interest in such values. Such activities are part of semantic search. If the Bank of England can use such capabilities (to identify economic trends) using Search and Twitter trends, so too can the PR industry. Its not just Twitter but many other forms of expression in media as diverse as computer games, motives for attending events, other social media, corporate transparency and other on and off-line activities that can transform the idea of finding opinion forming and behaviour enhancing activists.

From such developments, the junior account executive's life is transformed from magazine list building into transformative PR campaign management. From just lists of magazines and journalists the activity engages real people and the their motivations. The work of 26% of practitioners paid less than £25,000 per years (according to the PRW/PRCA sector report) is transformed into activities worth as much as a £40,000 a year Media Manager/account Director. The productivity gain is considerable.

This kind of activity is iterative. Take the lowest value activity and develop it into the highest value added activity until you reach the highest paid executive in the organisation/department and productivity enhancements will be extraordinary.

High on the list of priorities in the 70's was quality. Total Quality Management which examined those areas which had lowest quality was worked on until it had the highest quality returns and iteratively, all activity was examined and improved. This was followed by Right First Time. This "do it one and do it right" principle would cut approval costs very quickly.

In another time and in another industry, we went through such challenges and can now apply them to PR.

The first problem we faced then and PR faces now is being able to measure quality.

In almost every PR office you will hear the baleful cry of 'I am waiting for press release/tweet/blogpost approval'. Here is a measure of quality. Approvals, if they are needed should be a joy to give not a chore for the manager involved. Cutting number of people involved and approval times will cut costs significantly.

Imagine, if you will, measuring the uptake of press releases without the awful and demeaning phone round. "did, you receive my press release?" THAT sort of phone call is a symptom of poor quality. Measuring it will immediately focus attention on a productivity leaching activity.

Developing the 'Right First Time' capability is only one part of the process. The other is in motivating the approver such that approval is quick and a joy.

Some of this activity will, no doubt, include that good old fashioned process of delegating up the management chain. Most people delegate down and that is a PR mindset. Try working the other way round.

One of the other major developments we learned all those years ago was the need to be in the vanguard of innovative practice. In PR there are a lot of things we can do to innovate and at present, there are many ways we can enhance corporate relationship management with very exciting new approaches to PR.

I hinted at some of the areas we can look into. At the tactical level there are exciting opportunities in areas such as online video media, text based social media, Website design and deployment, SEO, social and event organisation for face to face relationship management, Augmented Reality, smart phone games, widgetry and many more. They all interlock. Would you believe that journalists like widgets too?

However, such activities are quite mundane when looking at what is available just over the current horizon.

In the development of the high value added sectors in our economy, decisions are constantly being made as to whether it is more effective to make of buy. This means that the PR industry may well become a major economic driver in its own right. It will need a much bigger supply base and that is no bad thing and a big advantage for the sector. The upstream economic value of say the UK Space industry is such that it is needed by governments to enhance national GDP, employment and global influence.

This is another advantage of making the PR industry more productive (as though growth, profitability and global leadership was not enough).

But the industry does have to go much further.

Being not the participant but the initiator of developing vision, mission, objectives and values at the most senior level is a start and when applied to organisational relationships is quite a challenge. It is a challenge that the PR industry is quite capable of meeting.

As greater transparency becomes the norm (and here we get back to one of the outcomes to anticipate from the Hacking scandal) and transparency technologies gain in momentum (a consequence of the semantic web and the Internet of Things), the PR sector will become ever closer to being the expert in developing facilitators as well as drivers of corporate effectiveness.

To be able to do these things, the overarching need is to re-look at the data from the PRW/PRCA research and take from it the urgent need to increase PR sector productivity by factors.

Image by Mac Funamizu http://petitinvention.wordpress.com

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Brave new PR

In an exercise with some students we looked at a project in which the PR person was given responsibility for a university open day with the objective of increasing the number of student registration to 110% of capacity.

The university was running at less than 95% so this was quite a challenge.

The rules were simple. No budget constraints and stick to the brief.

Of course we undertook a detailed analysis of the primary publics and their interests and drivers: candidate students, existing students,the faculty etc.

By the time we had students wearing tee shirts with QR codes printed on them, it was obvious that the internal  communication activity was going to be critical.

To get fulsome buy-in from the dominant coalition and starting with the Principles, QR codes were liberally evident outside their offices linked to web sites about achievements, interests and Facebook friends to like selected with salacious care (every lecturer has glamorous Facebook friends - it goes with the territory).

In (classroom tests) it became clear that although the staff was completely oblivious to the secrets of QR codes, the students had no such barriers. Here was a subversive form of communication that was just right for the target audience but also really useful to achieve in-house buy-in (after all when you come out of your office and a bunch of giggling students are pointing phones at the notice boards, even the crustiest academic is curious).

The ideas for the programme, now an interactive university wide exhibition, continued as exemplar courses were given the QR treatment. Film and Vision has a wonderful challenge to use their studio to create YouTube events (inspiration came from here)  for visitors providing attendees with QR codes in hard and soft copy. The stars in the show, academics, students and visitors alike were offered staring roles.

Imagine proposing to a librarian that the PR department wanted to deface books with QR codes converting them into interactive documents incorporate text pictures and video. A deeper richer experience and above all fun. Perhaps even creating Slate books.

Meantime the maths majors were (hypothetically) working on creating a virtual environment about a new form of seminar with the lecturers in class and the students in the bar (sounds credible to me).

A new way of annotation for course work was thought to be a good idea for visitors to the open day.

The whole university was offered help to work on Wikipedia entries with each paragraph having its own QR code with free help from local wikipedians.The resulting codes were photo-shopped into a walk through department exhibition using a really appealing invitation for the young men expected to take an interest

The chemists had a ball developing Avatar presented activities.

Of course all universities need to keep local communities involved and a small team worked on how they could create web presence and interaction between visitors, students and the community and local enterprises. In addition there was a case for creating new ways to stay in touch with school and university alumni.

Having scoped out what was possible, the next major consideration was reaching out to the target audience. Direct contact, involvement with schools, local press, radio and television and, of course the places where young people (and their parents) go. Every new media idea that the class had come up with had a novel, interesting and compelling application for enhancing media relations and extending interest and coverage.

Progressively, this imaginary event  became bigger developing ways that people could interact with the open day exhibitions using Augmented Reality.

The need to be able to use print, email, personal visits, social media, traditional media, shops, clubs and community institutions became significant. Detailed analysis of ways to reach the, now growing range of internal and external publics needed careful analysis. From Twitter to Linkedin, building lists and approaches needed careful planning (and careful risk analysis too). Timetabling the plan was becoming harder.

The wonderful thing about students is that they suddenly come up with a new, and compelling idea.

The idea that so many communication capabilities came from the internet of things inspired by the Corning video brought a whole new range of new communication ideas.

To be able to attract a Corning demonstration, there would be a need to make the open day bigger, requiring wider involvement of the local, and, notably, commercial community.

There are two serious drivers for commerce: incremental sales or, alternatively lower cost.

What, for example would happen if these truly exciting events could extent to the wider community? What self respecting club could resist a QR code enhancement - if only on tee-shirts and wearable transfers, badges, table mats, drinks and even the bands. What is all these electronic gizmo's were all branded to keep promoting the university?  Can the open day become an interactive community interest in shopping malls and, in doing so, increase footfall?

Could visiting prospective students apply for a course using Bump technology? Could a local manufacturer use the new knowledge that the university was acquiring in communication skills for commercial gain? Is mobile phone bump technology helpful in replacing office access passes (Bump payment is now passĂ©e) and at the same time a message board on employees phones as part of the process adding internal employee communication to access control. Communication was invading and enhancing ordinary corporate function.

As the conversation progressed, each new application, every new idea offered new and interesting tertiary opportunities to engage a huge range of media from Facebook to YouTube and every news channel going.

By now, a simple open day, a normal PR activity, was becoming an agent for organisational change.

It was creating new and additional motivations for the establishment, lecturers, students and the community.

The kind of thing they would want to do because it is fun.

What we witnessed was where advertising, sales promotion and PR blur into engagement. Relationships that needed careful and structured management to gain the most potent effect.

Congratulations to the creative students at  Escola Superior de Comunicação Social.

Exhausting isn't it?

Image from http://listverse.com/.

Friday, June 03, 2011

The search for hidden meanings

Throughout written history, people have engaged in finding the hidden meaning in writing.

Fascination at the hieroglyphs on the walls ancient Egyptian temples and burial sites extends back well before  4 PM on November 26, 1922 when Howard Carter’s search for hidden meanings resulted in the discovery of the 3300 year old and untouched tomb of 19 years old king Tutankhamun .

Today, we are even more fascinated with exploring our written (and spoken) language.

And it all comes down to what is known as Part-of-speech tagging (POS tagging or POST).

Most of us have done it at school by identifying words as nouns, verbs, adjectives, adverbs, etc.

Back when the Beatles were at their peak, America and its allies were embroiled in the Vietnam war, Dr Christiaan Barnard carried out the world's first human heart transplant and The Six Day War was fought in the Middle East, NASA launched an unmanned Apollo 4 test spacecraft and Britons got their first colour television programmes . But in that same year the one development that affects more people today and will do in the future is the work of Henry Kucera and W. Nelson Francis.  They published their classic work Computational Analysis of Present-Day American English (1967), which provided basic analysis about words in texts on what is known today simply as the Brown Corpus.

Henry Kucera and W. Nelson Francis did more complicated analysis than getting computers to find nouns and verbs but the principle is the same. It is a process largely based on relationships with adjacent and related words in a phrase, sentence, or paragraph. 

Once performed by hand, POS tagging is now done in the context of the son of the Brown Corpus, computational linguistics. It uses algorithms which associate discrete terms, as well as hidden parts of speech, in accordance with a set of descriptive tags or forms of description or, more recently, that are created as they are found ‘on the fly’.

The reason that Kucera and  Francis work is so important is that we have built a whole new form of society on this idea.

Clever scientists have used this idea of extracting hidden meaning to develop a new form of internet.

One of these ideas came from three academics Scott Deerwester, Susan  Dumais, George Furnas, Thomas Landauer and Richard Harshman (1990). They outlined how to analyse relationships between a set of documents and the terms they contain by producing a set of concepts related to the documents and terms. Called Latent semantic Analysis (LSA), the idea assumes that words that are close in meaning will occur close together in text.  

This idea is used by all manner of analysis programmes and helps find those hidden meanings.

In their paper they says “...Thus while LSA’s potential knowledge is surely imperfect, we believe it can offer a close enough approximation to people’s knowledge to underwrite theories and tests of theories of cognition.”  Since 1990, academics have come a long way and accuracy is getting ever closer to social reality. 

Today, the use of semantics makes the Google and Bing web search algorithms more accurate, helps newspaper journalists find the most authoritative sources for information and informs the top companies about events and their drivers to optimise financial, marketing and communication decisions.

Remember Kristen Urbahn’s story I blogged about three weeks ago? It has lots of hidden meanings. Using Extractive.com’s special search engine Kristen can find out about the relationships between different parts of the story (using automated Part of Speech tagging).

The results show the nature of some of the significant words:

PERSON (46)
│├SCREEN ACTOR (4)
││└ Kathy Griffin (4)
  she
││  her 
│├US CABINET MEMBER (1)
││└ Donald Rumsfeld
│├US PRESIDENT (3)
││└ Obama (3)
││  Obama
││  Obama
││  his 
│├ Brian Williams
│├ Dan Pfeiffer
│├ Jill Jackson (2)
  Jill Jackson
│├ Keith (6)
  Keith Urbahn
  He
 │├ Kristen Urbahn (13)
  Kristen Urbahn
   her
  Kristen Urbahn
 
  Kristen 
│├ Maggie Fox
│├ Osama Bin Laden (6)
  Osama Bin Laden
  Bin Laden 
│├ Osama Bin Ladin (5)
  Osama Bin Ladin
  He
  Osama
  he 
│└ Sohaib Athar



LOCATION (14)
│├GPE (13)
││├COUNTRY (5)
│││├ Afghanistan
│││├ Pakistan (2)
│││  Pakistan 

│││└ US (2)
││├CITY (4)
│││├ Abbottabad
│││├ Denver
│││├ Guardian
│││└ San Francisco
││└US STATE (4)
││  Kansas
││  South Carolina
││  Washington (2)
││   Washington
││   Washington 
│└ Wiltshire
ORGANIZATION (21)
│├COMMERCIAL ORG (16)
││├MEDIA ORG (7)
│││├BROADCAST NETWORK (5)
││││└TV NETWORK (5)
││││  BBC
││││  CBS
││││  CNN (2)
││││  NBC
│││├ New York Times
│││└ Washington Times
││├ Defence
││├ Google
││├ Social Media Group

││└ Twitter (5)
││  Twitter 

│├NON GOVERNMENT ORG (2)
││├ Al Qaeda
││└ Republican Leaders Office
│└UNIVERSITY (3)
  Preston University
  University of Kentucky
  Yale
CONTACT INFO (1)
│└URL (1)
 HTTP (1)
  http://goo.gl/qHnFH

OTHER (18)
│├FACILITY (4)
││└BUILDING (4)
││  White House (4)
││   White House Communication Director
││   White House 

│├LINKED OTHER (11)
││├ Capitol Hill
││├ Christian
││├ Creative Commons
││├ Dachshunds
││├ Internet
││├ Internet
││├ Mobile
││├ POTUS
││├ President Obama
││├ Royal Wedding
││└ The New York Times
│└SOFTWARE (3)
  Facebook (3)
   Facebook 

DATE-TIME (16)
│├DATE GENERAL (8)
││├DATE (2)
│││├ Aug. 18, 2009
│││└ May 1 2011
││├DAY OF MONTH (1)
│││└ 1 May
││├MONTH NAME (1)
│││└ May
││├RELATIVE DATE (2)
│││├ months ago
│││└ the evening
││└YEAR (2)
││  2006
││  2011

│└TIME (8)
  10:30 p.m. Eastern Time
  10:40 p.m.
  10:53
  11 p.m.
  11:35
  4pm EST
  9:45 p.m.
  from 10:45 p.m.-2:20 a.m.
NUMERIC (20)
 MEASUREMENT (4)
 │└DURATION (4)
   Five years
 
  days
 
  former
 
  the hours
 NUMBER (11)
 │├ 2.0
 
│├ 3,000
 
│├ 5,000
 
│├ 7.24
 
│├ millions
 
│├ more than 185
 
│├ one
 
│├ one
 
│├ six
 
│├ three
 
│└ two
 ORDINAL (5)
   Third
  
 first
  
 first
  
 second
  
 third


Here, then, are the key elements that can be extracted from the blog post.

Two people from the 18th and 19th centuries now star in this story.

Thomas Bayes (1702–1761) was the son of London Presbyterian minister with a clever mathematical brain. He came up with what can be described as a way to look at these hidden parts of text and other content and find out the extent to which a particular inference is not true. For example Twitter is a big part of the Kristen Urbahn story but it is by no means the focus of the events in Pakistan.  It was just an (important) means by which information was shared across the globe. Thomas’ clever mathematics is the means by which it is possible for computers to make decisions about the probability that information can be relied on and, in that case, the role of Twitter in news distribution.

With enough information and generous computing power, of which modern man has plenty, Bayesian probability offers something like a partial belief, rather than a frequency. This allows the application of probability to all sorts of propositions rather than just ones that come with a known structure. "Bayesian" has been used in this sense since about 1950. Advancements in computing technology have allowed scientists from many disciplines to pair traditional Bayesian statistics with other techniques to greatly increase the use of Bayes theorem in science. Now, computers can both learn from experience and are beginning to be good at prediction.

Twitter was important for the Urbahn story and so, the software might tell us, Twitter will be significant for other stories in the future.

It is such techniques that modern managers need to hand if only to be able to discover emerging trends in communication and or news and events.

Fifty years after Thomas death, George Boole  (1815 – 1864) came into this world to give us all a great way of discovering information.  George (who was married to an equally mathematically brilliant wife Mary and who was the nice of the man who gave Mount Everest its name), gave us Boolean algebra (1854). Today most people know it because it is useful when searching for information using search engines. The Boolean operations AND, OR, and NOT help narrow down searches to get more closely to the facts we seek (Kristen AND Urbahn OR Forcht).

But, the use of AND, OR, and NOT in mathematics and computing has other applications and when combined with Bayesian probability (and other similar math) which means that computers can be used to make accurate, predictive and related inferences and learn, for themselves, from the results.

In practice, we find useful tools to give us insights into events.

For example http://twitris.knoesis.org/  (created at Kno.e.sis at the College of Engineering and Computer Science at Wright State University) provides us with an ontology, related Tweets, links to highly relevant web pages, a chart of Tweet rates and much more.


In practice, a manager can keep a close eye on mentions of a company, brand or product and the reputation drivers behind the Twitter stream.

No one is pretending that business managers need to understand all the technologies. There is a need, however, to know that using such advances is now becoming central to modern management and communication.


Bibliography
Kucera, H. and Francis, W.N. (1967) Computational Analysis of Present-day American English Journal: Neuroimage - NEUROIMAGE
Scott Deerwester, Susan T. Dumais, George W. Furnas, Thomas K. Landauer, Richard Harshman (1990). "Indexing by Latent Semantic Analysis". Journal of the American Society for Information Science 41 (6): 391–407
 Boole, George (2003) [1854]. An Investigation of the Laws of Thought. Prometheus Books. ISBN 978-1-59102-089-9.
Gruber, Thomas R. (June 1993). "A translation approach to portable ontology Specifications". Knowledge Acquisition5 (2): 199–220.


Further Reading:
Introduction to LSA http://lsa.colorado.edu/papers/dp1.LSAintro.pdf
Semantic Inference in the Human-Machine Communication http://www.springerlink.com/content/ju71rcn9pq0wcmy3/
Continuous Semantics to Analyze Real-Time Data http://wiki.knoesis.org/index.php/Continuous_Semantics_to_Analyze_Real_Time_Data
Web semantics and ontology By Johanna Wenny Rahayu http://books.google.com/books?id=K7yFJVu8NDYC


Twitter, Facebook, and dozens more sources come through Gnip's API, normalized and enriched with metadata. http://gnip.com/