Have we learned yet - Brands need hunter-gatherers

The idea that a brand is a promise of an experience to come; an experience past and a special form of cultural magic is re-emerging from the stupor of civilisation as we have known it for five thousand years.

Elizabeth Albrycht, in her June post "Brands as Media: Platforms for Value Creation" put forward the idea that brands are changing because of a "shift in technology and audience expectations is driving a major evolution in marketing, which, at least initially, is leading companies to develop, purchase and/or maintain/support media properties, be they online forums, blogs, and social networks. (This is already starting to result in brands competing with traditional media, the very places they have supported by their advertising over the past decades. With large consumer products companies in better financial shape than media companies, this might result in some odd marriages in the next few years.)"

She follows Haque who posits that "traditional branding activities, especially advertising, imposes costs on consumers. Costs of interrupted attention, time spent waiting for a TV show to resume, polluted visual fields in cities and countrysides, and so on. Culturally, consumers are now expressing their increasing resentment of these costs and refusing to pay them (and technology is giving them ever more tools to easily do so)."

This suggests that brands are morphing and are taking on new rolls and capabilities.

Brand marketing without push advertising, heavily PR dependent consumer journalists and blinding Point of Sale is a strange beast.

It moves towards a community experience, part of the gossip communities indulge in and leavened by a capability for the community to cluster round the best gossips, the best informed gossips and the most enabled (RSS) gossips in the world.

These are people.
Real people.

They are the top hunter gatherers of the 21st century and they contribute to the tribe as part of the community.

In their rituals they seek the information that the gods of technology offer them and interpret these oracles to in a conversation with their community.

Some are so good that people flock to their communities from many other tribes, who in turn spread the word.

We seek them out as mankind did for tens of thousands of years before agriculture produced enough ears of wheat for communities to build settlements, markets and inventories.

These people have to work with the grain of the community. They need to be of the community and their expression of the brand has to compete within the daily chatter of the community as it forages.

To shout out a brand message disturbs the community. If it has value it will become part of the community's conversation and culture but if it has no meaning it becomes culturally disruptive at a social cost to the perpetrator.

In this technology fuelled era, we are seeing echoes of mankind's almost lost past.

Image: Hunter Gatherer Wiki.

Why 20th century marketing is dead

If one of the worlds, leasing business publications was to be found to be selling editorial to the highest bidder it would be a scandal...right?

People would loose trust in its editorial independence.

It would loose its appeal to industry leaders.

Of much greater significance is that it would be vilified in social media and progressively its reputation would cost its shareholders their fortune just as those who once though banking shares were a smart lost theirs.

Indeed, those who colluded in such a scam would be suspect. Their ethical practice would be called into question and their reputation too will suffer.

Well, there are marketing practices that drag people along this gently inclining slope to the slippery bit and in an era of transparency cannot avoid the finger being pointed:

"Please let me know ASAP if you have a client that might be interested to participate in BusinessWeek's Cloud Computing ad section. This is a "pay-to-play" opportunity ($6,980 entry fee) to appear in a hot section.

"Appearance here will position your client as a leader in the the cloud computing space. BusinessWeek delivers a prime audience of 4.8 million decision-makers, consisting of over 1.8 million senior executives, and 2 million business technology influencers.

"BusinessWeek magazine will publish this section in its April 13, 2009 global print (and online) edition (hits newsstands/goes live April 3). Produced in partnership with the Cloud Slam 09 Virtual Conference Event, this timely section, titled "Cloud Computing: Next-Gen Internet to Power Business," will discuss the business imperatives of cloud computing, i.e. harnessing power, opportunity of on-demand computing, storage, applications, infrastructure, etc.

"If your client were to commit to advertise, we would develop complimentary coverage to appear in the section article (or develop a top quality "advertorial" piece); interview and content development by Internet veteran Vance McCarthy. Exposure includes visibility on www.cloudslam09.com during and after the event, and on www.businessweek.com/adsections providing links to their website (can include video), and high quality reprints. We are also offering Cloud Slam '09 Sponsorships. Further, we can create a very cool, interactive 3D “virtual booth” for your client at a relatively small fee. Uniquely, the booth 'container' is in PDF, so it can be distributed everywhere your client wishes, beyond the event! Lots of value and impact in this package! Another complimentary element here is BusinessWeek's social networking Business Exchange site now taking flight.

There is nothing new in this. It has gone on for years and yet, because it is common practice does not make it right.

So, are we shocked to see circulations of publications in free fall when the words they print are really just advertorials? Well not really. Will anyone regret the going of such publications. Well no, not really.

Feel for the poor pensioner who depends on investment in such shares for a living.

The Value of Online Content

So you ‘Goole’ your company to find that Google has indexed 200,000 pages that have a reference to it.

These references have a value. Some are pages on your web site; others will be orphaned pages, some are pages that reference your organisation because you have a commercial link arrangement. Some are references in newspapers and magazines that have written about the organisation because of PR or other newsworthy activities and some will be blog post, LinkedIn references, information sharing sites, YouTube videos, Twitter mentions, social network reference and there will be a lot of others too.

Some of these references will link back to your organisation’s websites/s and many will be a mention in passing.

Individually and collectively, all these mentions have a value. They are assets even though they do not appear on the balance sheet. Without them, your organisations will be invisible to most people who want to know about your organisation and others that do have such links will have a competitive advantage.

The problem we have is finding out what this asset is worth.

Worth can only be established at a time of transaction between a willing seller and a willing buyer and as most online references are not monetary by nature we face a problem in valuation.

The big problem is in knowing the nature of the currency.

A mention of an organisation in a blog post or a visible sign in the background of a Flickr photo provide brand presence but may not have any intent to offer value (monetary or otherwise) by the publisher or, conversely, the intention may be absolutely commercial in intent.

In PR, we have always had a problem of converting such intangibles into monetary values. It is why some practitioners use Advertising Values, a very rough and ready (and mostly misleading) transmogrification from one set of values into another in an attempt to find a common monetary currency.

Online there are a number of transactions that have monetary value. For example, we know the cost of advertising on the web pages of newspapers. There is the value of Pay Per Click advertising which is well established as well. The price of banners and other commercial online devices are pretty easy to ascertain.

However, they have the same problem that editorial in newspapers have. They apply to advertising and only in a tiny fraction of web sites and internet channels.

 It would seem that the problem we have in identifying the value of online assets is pretty complicated.

 Working with my friend Girish Lakshminarayana  I have been looking at ways we can approach this problem and over the next few months hope to find currencies and a means of developing currency conversion that will allow us to offer robust metrics.

It will not be easy but there are some ideas that we have that make me think this is doable.

In the meantime, we will also be looking for examples of expression of relationship and the currencies that apply.

If there is PhD student out there who would like to join the fun, let me know.

Domians of PR practice and influence

We are constantly being asked to describe what the PR sector does in the context of its role in influencing opinion and decsiosn making.

Last month I needed a lecture to to put this into context and, in the process, describe PR in its wider role.

I was helped by a paper I prepared some years ago about the domains of PR practice. 

My attempt to introduce this area of PR practice is reproduced below.

The Range of Practice

There are a number of ways one can identify the nature and scope of public relations practice.

One is to view practice from the perspective of the publics that influence organisations.

In Chapter 2 of Exploring Public Relations[i], (pp19-22) Tench and Yeomans explore the environments that influence the practice of public relations. This perspective is very important in explaining the role of public relations from a perspective of influencer publics.

This public relations view has counterparts in Freedman’s[ii] stakeholder theory and subsequent papers[iii].  This concept examines the nature of relationship management from the perspective of the organisation and seeks to manage relationships with stakeholders that the organisation perceives as having influence. It is a common management practice and has its problems mainly because of the numbers of publics the organisation ignores in its analysis of its stakeholders.

We can see this effect easily by searching for an organisation using Google’s advanced search capability to find pages published in the previous 24 hours and  then assessing the extent to which the organisation had control of the publication of the content, and thus, its online reputation.  It quickly becomes evident that most organisations have a very modest influence, and conduct their business from a stakeholder perspective (there is an extensive bibliography about stakeholder theory at http://theclarityconcept.pbwiki.com/Academic+Resources

Another view might be from the perspective of PR practice. Basically: what do PR people really do? My unpublished paper [iv] seeks to answer this question.

It shows that there are many types of PR practiced and many of them are focused on limited areas of activity.

What this demonstrates is that, with a grasp and understanding of the range of activities that fall within the broad church of the profession, entrants can be informed as to their choice of career and, in addition, as their career progresses they have a grasp of fundamental principle that will, in time, allow them to manage other specialist in PR and organisational management  with  specific and specialist roles.

The nature of affective publics

To be effective in practice we have seen that the practitioner needs to be able to understand the nature of relationships that are affective.

It is important to note that organisations are not always companies. They can be voluntary organisations, associations, pressure groups, religious organisations and many more.

All organisations can, and most do, have someone with a PR role.

There are many groups that influence organisations. Some are internal (management – the dominant coalition, employee groups – including organisations departments, cross discipline/departmental working parties, informal clubs and interest groups, Trades Unions etc), some are part employed on contracts (accountant, advisors and consultants, contractors), some are part of the value chain (suppliers, wholesalers, retailers etc), some are regulators (local, regional, national and supra-national government), some are regulatory (trade and professional associations, standards authorities, government agencies etc) and then there are consumers and consumer groups including informal recommenders often family or social groups providing word of mouth recommendations.

There is a new form of group emerging. They are of the nature of publics that form round issues as described by Grunig and Hunt but have evolved since their writings 20 years ago[v].  

What we see is groups of people who cluster round tokens. The tokens can be an issue, interest brand, or a set of common values, a feature that has always been part of human interaction, but which is now much facilitated by the internet (see the work of Bruno Amaral) . They are commonly (if narrowly) described as ‘user generated groups’[vi]. 

This array of influencers is considerable and all are potentially the specialist interest of managers and notably public relations managers. In senior posts, PR practitioners may have responsibilities for relationships with many such groups and in some cases all such groups.

The nature of interaction between organisations can be as between two PR practitioners each representing different groups.

The practitioner in an organisation needs to know about those organisations that affect the workings and long term effective survival of the organisation.

 

The influences on organisational direction

To be effective in development of relationships between organisations the practitioner needs to know how organisations are constituted; how they make decisions and what influences their decision making. In addition, the practitioner will need to know how to access the influences on decision making.

Organisations are different. Decision making in a company is very different from decision making in a cricket club or county council.

What we need to be able to do is find out how to influence the decision making process.

It is important in this sphere of PR practice that one examines the nature of organisations.

There is considerable literature but Elizabeth McMillan has  some excellent papers[vii] that explain the nature of organisational structure.

To interact effectively with organisations there is a need for transparency. John C Havens and Shel Holtz cover organisational transparency for organisations showing that to build trust there is a need for transparency and that because organisations disclose information to its publics, it can and does spread to third parties[viii].

For this reason, they come to the same conclusion and Phillips & Young (2009 ibid). 

It is important to be transparent. It is important to manage transparency and it is important that the presentation of intellectual properties (trademarks, patents, copyright content, know how, processes etc), should be in a manner and time suited to the publics involved and knowing that at some time more than one public will have access to the information provided to a third.

The conclusion we then come to is that changing relationships to maximise short term organisational success and optimise long term survival, organisations need a coherent strategy across all domains of public relations.

The PR manager needs to know about the range of organisations and social groups (including ‘user generated' groups) that affect the organisation.

Why organisations like to be influenced

At first glance one could be squeamish about wanting affect the decisions of an organisation.

In fact, for an organisation to be effective, it needs external influence over its decision making processes.

If one takes, as an example an organisation like a County Council in the midst of a once in 20 year crisis brought about by a snow storm.

In 2009, this happened. After a cold winter, stocks of salt for keeping roads clear of ice and snow were depleted. Then in February snow storms covered roads and paths to an unusual extent. The council has a responsibility for keeping roads clear and paths passable. But stocks of salt were depleted. What was to be done?

The councils across the country tried to get supplies but their normal vendor was out of stock and there was no one nearby who could help out.

Then, the council heard about using table salt. They also found out that stocks were in good supply. This information affected their decision making. They could buy table salt for roads and paths.

In this case the influence of the media, prompted by an initiative by the Gloucester County Council, became a solution across the country.

Here we can see quite clearly that an influence on decision making helped solve a problem. 

However, the council will not have made such a big decisions without taking advice. Some of that advice will be about the suitability of table salt on roads (it has to be mixed with road salt); some will be about cost, transport and the amount needed. Such information will come from third parties, internal expertise and then, with all the facts, the council officers and relevant council committee can make a judgement and come to a decision.

Organisations, welcome influence to help them make better decisions.

 

How practitioners influence decision making

In many cases the role of the practitioner is to influence publics. This may be a two-step process such as encouraging press coverage to offer a point of view and which is read by the target public. In other cases, the process will be one of convening meetings between parties and on yet another occasion it may be the production of publications for circulation to key audiences.

Often, the practitioner will be involved in many activities all aimed at achieving the same end.

This is helpful for the target organisation. A press article may alert the organisation to a possibility; a brochure or paper, will provide detailed information and a meeting can provide the opportunity for an exchange of questions and answers.

This kind of approach works as well for inter-organisational relationship building in its many forms and is the lubricant of much wealth creation.

The process of planning and managing public relations campaigns outlined in chapter 10 of Exploring Public Relations (ibid) provides the basis for identifying the mythologies that are applied in influencing decision making.

Any such plan will have clear objectives; has to be strategic in concept; is often multi-public in nature and frequently will use an array of tactics.

In many instances, this area of public relations work will involve a number of two step processes.

For example a key public may be influenced by the media, its suppliers, public bodies (councils, regulators, professional associations etc) and by some very influential individuals inside the organisation.

The role of the practitioner is to recruit such third parties as ambassadors, persuaders and influencers and a persuasive case has to be put to each.

However, sometimes an individual practitioner may not have the skills, knowledge or experience to do all this work. This is where the diversity of PR practice and the capability of specialist practitioners comes into its own. They can be approached to help by deploying their expertise on your behalf.

The nature of PR consultancy is that it offers such capabilities. These people are readily found as members of the Public Relations Consultants Association (http://www.prca.org.uk) or the CIPR (www.cipr.co.uk), The International Association of Business Communicators (IABC - www.iabc.com/).

While there are many reasons for joining and attending local meetings of such organisation, one of the key ones is to be on good terms with these many different practitioners locally and to find out what they do and how they go about it and, indeed, how they like to be briefed.

In conclusion

This paper set out to show the wider diversity of practice there is in the discipline of PR.

We have seen that there are a number of approaches to understanding the kinds of PR practice available to organisations including Stakeholder Theory and the Excellence Model.

 We have discovered that the usual forms of planning public relations between organisations is applicable to inter-organisational PR.

To be effective in inter-organisational PR it is important to understand how organisations are constituted and how they make decisions.

We also explored reasons why organisations want to change perspectives between each other and that they like to be influenced.

One of the things we noted is that this kind of PR often involves a multitude of opinion formers and influencer organisations who can act as ambassadors and influencers on your behalf.

Finally we discovered that the range of PR disciplines available provide resources and expertise that you can call on to assist in planning, managing and implementing and inter-organisational PR programme.

---

[i] Tench, R. & Yeomans, L. (2006) Exploring Public Relations Prentice Hall

[ii] Freeman, R.E., & Reed, D.L. (1983). “Stockholders and stakeholders: A new perspective on corporate governance.” California Management Review, Vol. 25 No.3, pp.83-94.

[iii] Freeman, R. E. & McVea, J. (2001). “A Stakeholder Approach to Strategic Management” Darden Business School Working Paper No. 01-02

Freeman, R. E. & McVea, J. (2001). “A Stakeholder Approach to Strategic Management” Darden Business School Working Paper No. 01-02

[iv] Phillips, D. (2006) Domians of PR Practice  http://www.netreputation.co.uk/managementclarity/domians_of_pr_practice.pdf accessed 2009.

[v] Grunig, J, E. & Hunt, T (1984).  Managing Public Relations.  Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace.

[vi] Phillips, D & Young, P. (2009) Online Public Relations Kogan Page London

[vii] McMillan, E. (2002) 'Considering organisation structure and design from a Complexity Paradigm Perspective' in Frizzelle, G. and Richards, H. (eds.) Tackling industrial complexity: the ideas that make a difference. Institute of Manufacturing, University of Cambridge.

[viii] Havens, J.C. & Holtz, S (2008) Tactical Transparency: How Leaders Can Leverage Social Media to Maximize Value and Build their Brand. Jossey-Bass

Managing the Unknown Internet Part 2

In most PR work there are risks and opportunities. To manage them we need to identify them.

This can be done by an individual, a focus group or management team or can be established from research. It’s a great opportunity for a brain storm with someone making notes!

In preparing a strategy for a programme it is worth looking at where there may be influences that can affect it.

In online public relations it is possible to second guess many of the potential influences. The recession of 2008/10, is a classic case in point. For a number of companies strategy had to change to maintain presence but at a much lower cost. Promotion budgets are slashed and PR had to take the strain. With reduced advertising, many publications just do not have the space for stories they would have run only months before. Online there were fewer constraints and so budgets have shifted.

In PR there are some pretty well established influences that affect practice



The range of known influences that can affect online PR programmes are extensive.



It is also possible to evaluate risk and asses its influence in terms of probability and impact.
An example might be confidential product information could leak out of the organisation and into the public domain because an employee has a blog.

Having described risks and potential for effects, the practitioner (evaluation team) will asses each element in terms of likelihood of occurrence and impact. It helps put the risk or opportunity into perspective. This is a technique used by many voluntary and public sector organisations. It is the kind of matrix that might be used to assess risk for a school outing and is also used in project management.



Assessing the impact of events which can be estimated before any action is taken and again after mitigating policies are proposed to see if the potential for risk is lowered (acceptable) prior to implementation or exposure.

The next part of the process is to create a mitigation (or contingency) plan, process or protocol to reduce either of both risk of likelihood or impact. This might be the introduction of, say, a company wide blogging policy or the use of data on home computers.

Once a mitigation plan has been worked out, a new assessment is made of the likelihood or impact to see if the proposed actions for mitigation has had an effect that makes the risk acceptable within the campaign.

The process is quite simple and effective and is valuable when attempting to identify competitive advantage versus doubts.

These methodologies can be used in making all manner of decisions including the extent to which the internet should be made available during working hours (knowing that most people have access on their cell phones anyway). This structures approach helps inform such decisions.

Using such a process through each part of the planning process reduces risk to a manageable level and also helps to make precise projections of expected outcomes.

Risk management is a process and can be applied to strategy as well as tactics.




Of course, for each risk there is an opportunity. By applying the same technique but looking for opportunities and means to optimise such opportunities, the practitioner can enhance the effectiveness of any approach to a campaign.

It is all too easy to imagine events in stark black and white answers. This is seldom the only solution and practitioners can work on contingency planning

There are a lot of techniques that can be applied to ameliorate risk, optimise opportunity and, written into the programme strategy using techniques adopted from other disciplines, PR can ensure greater certainty in online activities.



Disaster seldom comes unannounced for most organisations. There tend to be number indicators that presage the public event.

The key is to be able to identify the stages as they present themselves. They are:

Variation

All plans have expected outcomes, financial budgets and timescales. These are often identified using aids for project planning (see above).

Monitoring such plans will identify where plans are going awry. Often such occurrences are small. These are 'variations' to the plan. Good monitoring will give teams notice that remedial action has to take place and contingency can be built into the plan. An example might be a contingency sum in a budget and some flexibility in delivery time built in.

Foreseen uncertainties

There are some variations that are identifiable and understood that the team cannot be sure will occur or when an event it will occur. To mitigate foreseen uncertainties, the plan will need to include the capability to identify the event and a capability to deploy a pre-planned contingency programme. An example might be unscheduled maintenance of a computer that is running the campaign blog One big issue is website uptime with issues such as a slowing of response times of the organisation's web site or, disaster of all disasters, the web site being so overwhelmed that it stops responding (in retail, this is the equivalent of one in ten shops being closed).
When a web site goes down, it is a PR problem. It is not an IT department problem. Risk analysis is critical in identifying and mitigating these events. Practicing for such events has to be included in any plan. Who does what, when and how and if they are not available or facilities are down who else should be part of such a plan.

Unforeseen Uncertainty

This kind of event cannot be identified during project planning. There is no Plan B.

The team will be unaware of the event’s possibility or consider it so unlikely that there is no in-built contingency plan. To be able to manage such events a comprehensive monitoring and alerting process is critical.

“Unknown unknowns,” or “unk-unks,” as they are sometimes called, make people nervous because existing decision tools are not available. Unforeseen uncertainty is not always caused by spectacular events or issues. They can arise from the unanticipated interaction of many events, each of which might, in principle, be foreseeable. The best management practice here is attention to detail and constant re-evaluation of the plan and its application.

The model described here includes risk analysis at just about every point in planning. Mature management of PR will have to begin to include these more complex management techniques in the future and it takes out a lot of the management concerns that surround the use of social media.

Here are the key elements for reducing the impact of the unforeseen:

• Teams must go beyond mere crisis management and continually scan for emerging influences — either threats or opportunities. Practitioners should be scanning the horizon more than three months out to identify potential problems while they can still do something about them.
• Risk analysis must be an ongoing activity with no potential hazard excluded because it seemed wacky at the time.
• With unforeseeable uncertainty, a lot of time and effort must go into managing relationships with key publics, often getting them to accept unplanned changes. Knowing who and how to contact key publics is important. Good old fashioned public relations to maintain good and effective relationships count when the unforeseen happens.
• Top-management support, negotiation techniques, team-building exercises and the practitioner's leadership can help resolve conflicting interests.
• Trust is a core element in managing the unforeseen which means value systems and value system analysis is critical (ibid)
• Managing variance and planning for managing foreseen uncertainty assist managing the unknown because contingency planning will be part of the organisation's culture.

The unforeseen can be managed.

The US Institute of crisis management offers some insights into where to look for unforeseen uncertainty, listing the most common on its web site (http://www.crisisexperts.com)

In an era when the internet is bringing great change in communication (as well as the way organisations are organised and managed), being able to deploy these types of technique allows organisations to enter new areas of interactions with some confidence to gain optimum benefit at an acceptable level of exposure.

Managing the Unknown Internet

Public relations is a management discipline and as such has to apply management techniques to what it does. So far we have shown a number of such techniques when used to optimise campaigning. All too often we have also mentioned the need for risk management.

Even today, many management teams are wary of the internet and many see it as a threat. For some there is no doubt that it is a threat and needs management.

New channels for communication emerge and often with great speed, the internet is driven by many people and there is much presence that is not controlled by the organisation. Much of internet activity does not follow the usual linear models for management. The sequence of events can be as easily disrupted by the online community as the marketing of finance departments.

The lesson is obvious: plans have to be fluid. We need to be able to master the unknown. We have to grasp opportunities quickly and we need tools to help us make judgments – often at short notice.

The solution is to adopt practices from other disciplines in which “management of the unknown” is common. Some of the greatest benefits to modern living have become possible because we know how to manage where there is uncertainty.

There is a great deal of useful experience in this field, and for example, De Meyer, Loch and Pich[1] offer insights that can be used by relationship management practitioners. One can adapt these ideas for use in online public relations.

So what does uncertainty look like in the fast moving online environment? De Meyer et al offer four uncertainty types — variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty and chaos.

Internet traffic data, displayed in time series (a sequence of events, measured typically at successive times, spaced at (often uniform) time intervals such as daily or monthly), has a number of characteristic properties, widely known as "stylised facts", which are different to other kinds of time series:

· They tend to be long-tailed, i.e. there is a higher frequency of very extreme events than have a long life and tail off slowly.

· They tend to show long-range dependence, e.g. search engines will find content that is old and present it today, people will remember and bring content to the fore long after it was news to another group and so forth (the Internet has a 'long memory' and 'time shifts' information – and reputation).

· They exhibit volatility, i.e. the apparent variance (from the plan or anticipated outcome) is not a constant but tends to fluctuate irregularly, something the internet has in common with traditional media that can bring back old news to support a new story.

These are challenging concepts, but can be visualized by thinking about books or recordings sold through an outlet such as Amazon. Traditionally, a band might release a single, which was bought contemporaneously by a lot of people, making it a ‘hit’, before it slipped out fashion. Traditional record shops stocked the big sellers and knew it was not cost effective to maintain stocks when the song dropped out the charts. But the economies of scale offered by Amazon, allied by the infinite amount of virtual shelf space it commands, means that songs that most have forgotten are still available. Ok, they will sell very small quantities but, they are sales nonetheless and cost of storage and display is minimal on the website. This is the well noted ‘Long Tail’ effect[2].

The same long tail effect can be applied to news stories. Whereas once most people would read a story when it was splashed across the front page of a print newspaper and then discard it, such stories are now part of digital archive, quickly accessible to search engines. Each individual story may not be read by a huge volume of people on any one day, but its readership stretches down the long tail (the 'value of the story has a very long 'shelf life'). This too has implications for PR in that today the news never quite goes away. It may be forgotten by most readers, but Google has a long memory and is always ready to serve up scraps organisations might imagine had long vanished.

In other words we are not quite sure where and when our online programme will pop up or in which platform or channel.

The practitioner can use some well known techniques to second guess what will be fashionable or will work (and those that won’t) using risk and opportunity techniques well established in other disciplines[3].

One thing we know is that risk and opportunities changes are dependent on complexity. If a programme is very complicated there is more to go wrong and online PR, with its range of platforms channels and contexts, is quite complicated. But as we now know the opportunities for considerable incremental success is greater.

[1] Pich, M.T., Loch, C.H. and De Meyer, A. (2002) "On uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity in project management." Management Science, 48(8): 1008-1024

[2] Anderson, C. 2006 The Long Tail, Hyperion

[3] Risk Management literature include: (C. Chapman and S.Ward, “Project Risk Management” (Chichester, United Kingdom: Wiley, 1997), 7. R.L. Kliem and I.S. Ludin, “Reducing Project Risk” (Hampshire, United Kingdom: Gower, 1997), 10-25. Chapman, “Project Risk Management,” 10, 241.).

The History of the Internet

What a great description.

The New Regulatory Environment

There is some good that comes from the miserable event in Parliament yesterday.

The Treasury Select Committee did little to shed light but its work, I think, points to how we can look forward to the changes that are needed in a new regulatory framework.

Mervyn King can begin to look for answers instead of frightening the horses.

I cannot speak of the role of compliance officers and risk managers in banks. I cannot speak for the PR industry and the role of the publicists who advised bankers facing a Parliamentary committee. But I can consider what we can learn from the debacle.

What was evident is that there is a need for enhanced corporate transparency. Transparency that allows regulators such as the FSA to have mandatory visibility of necessarily regular advice from compliance offices, risk managers and relationship managers (PR people) to boards of big commercial enterprises like banks.

Advice that can, in addition, be made, to an extent, available at times when such institutions seek support from shareholders and the public purse to re-finance their activities.

Such internal managers can be charged with a mandatory role of advice designed to protect long term shareholder value.

This changes the role of these internal managers. It gives them a mandatory role as well as an internal one.

For PR, it means that the responsible practitioner has to be able to evaluate and explicate the work of companies as it affects and can affect internal and external relationships and thereby trust and reputation. It makes them responsible to the board in the interest of shareholders and other stakeholders.

There is a case for the FSA to be charged with the role of monitoring this internal advice and acting upon it but this changes the mandate for such regulators. The mandate has to be able to respond not just the the industry sector or government but, in globalised industry and commerce, a responsibility for ensuring that the sector is not acting against the interest of the public sphere, a theory that is well grounded in Europe and more so in the USA.

Of course there is more to this but something positive is available from the farce of the Treasury Select Committee activities so far.

Did PR fail the banking industry? Arguably so says Edelman

Richard Edelman was the principle guest in a wide-ranging one-hour For Immediate Release live discussion on BlogTalk Radio on 7 February on the topic of trust from the communicator’s perspective.

He was asked about the need for organisations to have well managed relationships to enable trust to flourish and, given that relationships is the PR turf in management, did public relations fail the banking industry?

He responded that he was "... not sure that PR people sufficiently made mention of the downside to an entirely de-regulated environment because because people were making so much money. "

Richard Edelman said "I think that the job of the communicator within the organisation goes beyond press relations or social media outreach.

"I really think our job is at the table as advisers bridged to constituencies that the corporation does not have relationships with, whether NGO's or social active groups or whatever".

He speculated on whether PR failed in the crisis saying: "Arguably so, because I am not sure we exactly have a vision of what the surviving institutions are going to be.

"The need is still there to establish what the vision is of the financial institution of the future."

"Our job is to think dimensionally.

"It is a matter of policy.... that we have to advocate (and) not just be a crisis manager."

Given that Richard Edelman is the CEO of the largest independent PR firm in the world, these are significant statements. They show a level of uncertainty about the role of PR and imply criticism of the practice in the financial sector.

In addition, he is, not far from my perspective (if, necessarily, less strident).

I have argued:

"The world is going through financial turmoil because public relations practitioners were just not up to the job.

When one banker cannot trust another banker there is a breakdown of not just trust but relationships and an absence of meaningful, symmetrical communication. Who was the manager responsible within the organisation for trust, relationships and communication? Where are the PR practitioners 'expanding their influence within complex organizations'?

Can we now see senior members of the PR industry moving towards a view that relationships served by poor PR is, in itself toxic?

Having considered the many domains of PR practice (PDF) that "beyond press relations or social media outreach" and thinking through the knock on effect between the different disciplines, this is a matter for all practitioners.

There is more to come out of this and it needs to be an open debate in the PR sector. Not to discuss this openly will affect trust in the profession of public relations, which takes us back to the debate in the FIR programme.

Freezing out CIPR slackers

February 2nd 2009. Overnight the long forecast snow fell over London and the South East of England

There was disruption to roads railways and airports.

Websites vital to travelers ground to a halt.

The reputation of these organisations is harmed

As I write, members of the Chartered Institute of Public Relations face hearings in front of the Institute's disciplinary committee.

They are the Public Relations managers in The Highways Agency (http://www.trafficengland.com).

Other organisations that do not have professionally recognised members in their PR office, like South West Trains (http://www.southwesttrains.co.uk) whose web sites are down, will get what they deserve. Employing monkeys has its own rewards, I guess.

There are those whose organisations which have web sites that are very slow and in imminent threat of stopping all together.

This displays a wanton and flagrant abuse of the first clause of the Chartered Institute of Public Relations Code of Conduct.

It says: Maintain the highest standards of professional endeavour, integrity, confidentiality, financial propriety and personal conduct.

It shows lack of "Encouragement of professional training and development among members of the profession" which is clause six.

Worse, these people are failing to be "...aware of the limitations of professional competence: without limiting realistic scope for development, being willing to accept or delegate only that work for which practitioners are suitably skilled and experienced."

For a number of years and in each of the three books I have written on the subject (two for the Chartered Institute) I have made it quite clear that a slow or crashed website is a reputation issue more than anything else. UK PR bloggers (and others in other countries) have also made the same point.

To put an organisation in a position where its principle form for communicating with its publics is not available shows complete lack of professional competence.

I just hope that the CIPR is monitoring the situation and will make its position quite clear in the next few hours.

As a professional organisation, it is time to make a stand or loose more credibility in representing the interests of people claiming some form of expertise in client communication.

Monitoring update

There are some standard methods for monitoring online activity.

For basic free monitoring there are recommendations and more for bought-in services.

Publicasity has some cool tools in its Publicasity Netvibes pages which aggregates a wide range of monitoring services and is up to date in real time.

There is also sentiment analysis for Google natural search at MediaDash and a prett comprehensive instant audit at TrackBuzzNow

There are some other service and the one with big buzz is TweetDeck capability for Twitter.

Its the Message Stupid

I was taken by this post in Shel Holtz blog and thought the comment he quotes from Phil Gomes whose blog post was titled, “Having a ‘message’ is fine, it’s the ‘messaging’ that sucks.”

Shel quotes:

In his post, Phil draws a distinction between messages (it’s important to have them) and messaging, which Phil defines thusly:

The development and cloying repetition of corporatespeak statements devoid of meaning, rendered in a language that no one uses, delivered without the benefit of listening first, and presented in venues and contexts where they are clearly inappropriate.

Phil’s absolutely right if, indeed, that were the definition of messaging. It’s not, though. It’s the definition of bad messaging. It logically follows, then, the only bad messaging is bad. Good messaging is simply the strategic use of appropriate channels to make sure the right people—the market for your message—is able to find it and hear it.

The New Marketing

Jeremiah Owyang discuses this video by Scholz and Friends, a German marketing agency.

It is worth watching.

Changes in the Value Chain has to change the role of PR

We are living through extraordinary times. As people gain access to online all the time communications tools with their cell phones and computers at home and at work they are changing the nature of interactions in the value chain.

The 20th century view was relatively easy to understand. The organisation was was largely a discrete entity, could survive using mass media and marketing was largely in charge of interactions between organisation and customers (broadcast messages supported by sales support) downstream and dependant on vendor marketing and selling capability upstream.
It could be described like this:





In the 21st century the value chain began to change. Internet driven transparency meant that much more was visible to everyone in the value chain. It replaced corporate public relations because competitive advantage required that organisations to make more information available to all constituents.

Today this model is becoming more general. Companies make public their CSR policies, vendors and customers and much more. In addition a lot of other organisations and individuals make information available about organisations. Classic example is the information made available to the public about organisations are websites like Companies House and Whois lookup which, in the past would have required a lot of expertise to discover and now are used as commonplace tools to find out more from third party sites. This has empowered constituents upstream and downstream as well as employees.

In addition, the range of channels by which actors in the value chain can interact have grown and many of them are, as we know interactive and part of interested networks.

Internally, there are changes too. Departmental barriers have come tumbling down because of the growth of new additional forms of communication such as email and instant messaging. These have made it easier for people to form relationships both between departments and between the historic hierarchies of typical 18 to 20th century organisational structures.


Now a new paradigm has emerged. Every organisation is outsourcing. Few organisations realise the extent to which they have outsourced and many will be surprised at some of the outsourced activities that happen automatically. An example is the automatic updates (patches) that happen to desktop PC's right across the organisation. They just happen. Other examples from auditing to logistics are common.

These third parties are part of the organisation cloud and are a form of transparency whereby internal and, in the past, confidential information is shared with third parties under an array of contractual agreements - many of which are inferred. Such agreements are often only as good as the relationship between the parties and have little by way of legal grounding.

Where, for example is the agreement between an organisation and a search engine?

Thus the value chain is changing very rapidly and is much more dependant on relationships than contracts.


This has profound implications.

It demands interaction in many more forms and between a wider range of actors and demands relationship management across a much more diverse range of constituents.

For the practice of public relations this change is very significant. Practitioners now need to be able to understand relationship management in a much more holistically and need to be able to explicate the changed nature of organisations and an understanding of how to implement management strategies and policies to the advantage of the organisation.

Teaching public relations, training practitioners and developing expertise is part of what we need to do.

There is one other imperative, which is very relevant to those organisations that represent the industry which is to explain this enhanced role for PR to organisation managers.

What exciting times we live in.

More reading:

Benkler Y 2002 "Coase’s Penguin, or, Linux and The Nature of the Firm" Yale Law Journal Volume 112, Issue Number 3

Martin Bailie

More to come....

David teaching about blog post

This is really hard!!! I've taken over David's blog so that he can show me how its done. Very confused!!!! We've been talking about Delicious and now we're going to link to it.

A Grunigian view of modern PR

Thinking through how PR can approach its online responsibilities one might want to use the1984 Grunig and Hunt model and it works quite well.

I have attempted to do it graphically and, no doubt you will want to change my perspective but I thought it time to extend the debate and examine some of the practical applications of social media that this view opens up.

(click on graphic for a full view)

The implications in terms of cost and control are, I think, relevant and important when advising clients. Being interactive does cost time on the one hand and having an effective website these days has high cost associated with design, production, hosting and management.

There is a myth about which claims that web2.0 use is low cost but the time and attention required is high but the effect seems disproportionately higher.

That is not to say that presentation is forfeit, far from it. A well designed blog is all the more readable and appealing as long as it is not crowded by bling and advertising.

Perhaps too, there is a consideration on the effect of using different channels.  Certainly there seems to be greater internal and external engagement as organisations move toward the two-way model but at the extreme the case is less well made. Moving in that direction has its advantages but it needs to be progressive.

One gets an impression that as an organisation moves towards two-way symmetrical communication combined with high levels of community interaction (and per force less involvement as a proportion of total activity by the organisation - think Facebook, YouTube, Linux, Procter and Gamble) there is a tendency towards higher performance in terms of long term sustainable organisational growth. The reverse is also true (do banks fall into this category?).

To enlarge the thinking....

It would seem that, as a generality, the further one gets towards two-way symmetrical, the more growth and corporate sustainability one can expect.

There is precedent for this kind of thinking. 

Taking a long historical view, the political systems that are more open and interactive have tended to last longer and brought more wealth to people.

Companies like IBM have re-engineered themselves in this way and have become stronger for it (Microsoft's reputation changed dramatically after Robert Scoble opened up the company). There are also the examples offered by Clay Shirky in his book 'Here Comes Everybody'.

The converse is true. Highly controlled political systems tend to have a finite life and the very closed companies suffer the same fate. A brief spectacular followed by a quick decline.

The value of hyperlinks

It seems odd to imagine a Hyperlink as being the basis of relationship ... but then, on second thoughts, it seems pretty obvious. But, it would be mere spin to make the claim without proper grounded research.

Bruno Amaral is examining how relationships are formed in some very interesting research for his Masters thesis.

We have been using some powerful new software designed for purpose by my friend Girish in Delhi involving word clustering, latent sematic analysis and web site network analysis and visualisation and it was the latter approach that prompted thinking about the nature of the hyperlink in the development of relationships.

The theoretical precept is that relationships are formed by exchange of tokens which have common values explicated by the participants.

My analogy is that of a rose and I use it a lot in lectures.

Being a man of certain years I take a full red rose to the lecture and after a preamble take the rose, admire its deep red colour and beautiful perfume and then walk to a pretty young student high in the auditorium and present it to her with a broad smile.

Mostly the students blush. No one has yet refused it.

You see, a rose has a number of values that are associated with it. Regard, romance, love, passion and a mutual exchange.

I can then explain that we all attribute values to a rose. Not everyone associates a rose with exactly the same values but where there are common values them the message is the basis for creating a relationship.

In PR that is what we do all the time. We interpret tokens such as products and services in such a way that their values will build relationships with publics.

Of course, people observe the exchange of tokens and interpret such actions from their own  perspective and their own set of 'rose values'. 

In a lecture, one can make such a point with a not much more than a raised eyebrow but make it clear that the audience' observation of the present is also part of relationship building.....

And then comes the let down.

Reaching into my pocket I produce a £20 note and offer it to another girl. No one has ever accepted it!

So the values of a rose is higher than the value of a £20 note?

The point is made.

We give different values to different tokens at different times......... after all a rose is only a dead stick.

Now, if we translate this to a hyperlink, we begin to get a view of how important a hyperlink really is.

It can be of great value because of the values expressed once the link is clicked on. Sometimes this is a great way of building relationships and sometimes its a disappointment and sometimes we just don't go there.

Even more important, we might click on a link one day and on another will think it is inappropriate.

Using hyperlinks in PR is a skill.

How you will spend your time and attention

Andrew Lark spotted this quotation from Pew Research:

The divisions between personal time and work time and between physical and virtual reality will be further erased for everyone who is connected, and the results will be mixed in their impact on basic social relations.

I cannt falt it either.

Sorry is a word

John Varley The Chief executive of Barclays Bank says that the banking industry is going through what he calls a public relations crisis, that it must apologise for what went wrong - because banks will not regain the vital trust of customers unless and until they own up to the sins of the past and say sorry.

Apart from pointing the finger at the failures of the banking industry (see my last post), one can ask what he really means by sorry.

He has a long way to go.

People confer trust on organisations. To do that they need some form of relationship. Progressively such relationships can become a trusted relationship based on experience of behaviours.

Banking behavious in all manner of relationships has a track record. It is diverse. It is networked between different publics and stakeholders. Relationships are not always two way and many relationships are formed beyond the control or wit of organisation.

For example, of the 42 new web pages about Barclays Bank today, only two were directly under the control of the bank perhaps a further ten included content mediated by the bank and all the rest were prompted by a community commenting in various ways about the bank.

At this stage, one might ask if John Varley means the banking industry is sorry for corrupting relationships because by looking at the range of people and institutions commenting about just one bank, close scruteny suggests that there is a long way to go before effective working relationhips (two way semetrical?) have been established and even further to go to identify trusting relationships.

The sinners of the past whose practices created toxic relatiohips are still in post and will have to change a lot if they are going to have any impact on relationships (first) and trust.

Perhaps they could start with transparent engagement.

One thing that they are going to have to come to terms with is the nature of wealth. John Varley made me wince when he said that:

"As soon as asset prices stabilise, then we will see the financial economy recover. And when will that occur? That will occur some time over the course of the next 18 months."

One can only wonder what he means by asset price.

An asset price is the measure of the value of an exchange between a willing seller and willing buyer.

There are lots of stable asset prices like the price of photo assets on Facebook. The price is measured in the enhanced value of relationships brought about by the photo.

A hyperlink in Delicious is an asset and such assets have a value and a price. The asset price, once again based on relationships has not changed much this month - or even this year and so there is asset price stability.

Looking at the asset price of a steel works or houses also depends on relationhip networks.

So is John Varley suggesting that he is really looking for stable relationships?

Good man!

Who is his relationships manager?

The relationship management model may also be of some help too.

Picture: The William Heath Robinson Trust http://www.heathrobinson.org/

Individual Social Responsibility - A Driver for PR

In September I made it quite clear that I though that the banking crisis was above all a crisis for public relations. My thesis is now underpinned by comments by the chief executive of Barclays, John Varley.

In an interview with the BBC's Robert Peston for last Monday's Panorama (8.30pm on BBC1) John Varley said that the banking industry is going through " a public relations crisis, that it must apologise for what went wrong - because banks will not regain the vital trust of customers unless and until they own up to the sins of the past and say sorry."

How did the industry get to the point where it has a public relations crisis?

Was it because it had good public relations? Obviously not. Here we are, sixteen months after the the toxic nature of the banking failure came to light, being given lessons in PR by a chief executive.

Were the practices of the banks so well served by the PR industry that they lost trust, not just between banks but between banks, business, retail customers and government? We have now seen that relationships served by poor PR is, in itself toxic.

Was the industry served by good public relations advice that put the industry into a circumstance that "will take between one and two years for lending to stop shrinking"?

Lets look at what was involved.

PR managers need to know about the products and services provided by their organisations. After all they have a responsibility for explaining what the organisation does to its publics. Failure to understand the product is high risk. PR practice without individual social responsibility of the nature of understanding the organisation dangerous.

PR managers have a responsibility for identifying threats to relationships and reputation and have a duty to inform the organisations of the threats and their consequences. It is a matter of individual social responsibility to both identify such threats and to engage internal publics through their own individual social responsibility to remove such threats.

The role of PR as watchdog and advisor in the management of relationships goes beyond the description of our trade, it is a matter of corporate financial prudence. It is extraordinary that Varley was not told that relationships are a corporate asset. After all, the evidence, as I pointed out in 2006, is robust. Individual social responsibility to internal and external publics includes a need to understand the financial implications of actions that will undermine relationships and reputation. Failure to do so is, of its nature more toxic than the reasons for the credit crunch.

PR managers have a responsibility for advising organisations about the ethics of practice. Ethical practice is about values and has to be part of individual social responsibility.

It is a matter of corporate social responsibility and, more important, individual social responsibility.

Now we have a senior manager in the banking sector pointing his finger at the practice of public relations.

It is an accusation that the industry has to take seriously.

Is it down to a chief executive of a bank to point out these failures or is it the individual social responsibility of practitioners and corporate social responsibility of the profession and its institutions to examine practice?

The track record of chief executives is, at a personal level, quite good but in practice they need robust professional capability in execution. Chief executives also need to be managed and, in this case not by the marketers, accounts department or non-executive board but by the PR manager.

In the month that the credit crunch struck (August 2007) I made exactly this point an so it was not exactly that we in PR (and Sir John Sutherland no less) were not aware of the need and consequences of poor social responsibility.

I am a Fellow of the CIPR and it is, I believe the dusty of Fellows to make the point and to call on the CIPR to be serious about the role of PR in guiding, advising and helping management of our clients.

A long time ago, I gave notice of the ethical, individual social responsibility, issue and asked:

Is the ethical practice then to expose the values or to change them?

A purist practitioner would expose the values and be damned and would allow the organisation to be damned by its constituencies. It is a form of practice that can stand back from the consequences of foolhardy management.

On the other hand the PR manager (a person who attempts to manage the relationships between an organisation and its constituencies) would attempt to change the organisation.

If the values that drive the public relations of an organisation are toxic, as in the now admitted case for banks, we have to re-visit the role of PR.

Two-way symmetry is no longer enough.

I have moved on. It is not enough just to stand fast and change the nature of the organisation such that its ethic will match that of its publics (the Grunigian view). It is a matter for being proactive both internally and with publics and, additionally, to be proactive in the eco-system of the client environment such that the environment can sustain the organisation.

We have to act.

There are amazing things happening at a very domestic level that give us a clue about what is happening online.

A very special lady in my life is my side of 60 years old and, yes explores products and services before buying in shops, buys and banks online but this story offers a slightly different angle. It is real as opposed to some investigation researched findings.

She was getting very fed up with spray window cleaners. Apparently they are not as good as old fashioned pink Windowlene.

For weeks she scanned supermarket shelves with no luck and eventually decided to use the internet.

Result!

Not only did she find that Windowlene is still available but that a small local shop stocks it.

What a brave local shop and what a result!

This is not some 24 year old geek or a major supermarket or even some magic next generation search - it is good old fashioned Web 1.0 working well.

When, I wonder will she price check in-store? The power of the internet in the hands of this demographic and the increased time spent by them online important not just for retailers but many other organisations. 

This story would be a straw-in-the-wind but is backed up a raft of research.

How much more can we achieve with all the new opportunities developing channels offer?

Watch the growth and growth of online retail

This weeks news from IMRG Capgemini was a real problem for the news media agenda. Far from a slump in retail sales, economic Armageddon and the end of markets as we know them, retailing is fine and, especially online, is doing better than ever.

Growth in online spending for November surged 26% on October and was up 16% on last year.

But I think there is a now a good case for following the rate of growth of online retailing as a major economic indicator.

What is happening online does not suite the doom-sayers and the media agenda which is a bit of a problem for them. The bloggers and people with an interest in what is really happening in retailing have a different agenda.

The propostion that retailing is dead is not helpful or true. There is a adjustment and the markets are uncertain but this downturn like many before it is now over-hyped.

Unemployment levels will continue to grow and others will join Woolworths. The news media will have a bleak agenda and market will adjust but these are symptoms of what was happening in the real economy months ago.

What we are seeing online is the real economy. This week we have see a change in the growth curve and it is up.

I think that this curve will be the one to watch this year if we want to understand what is happening in the real economy.

TrackThisNow - news service

I am delighted to be able to host this application by Gauri on the netrep server.

Please feel free to try it out at http://www.trackthisnow.com

Its Beta but good.

Watching the PR v Marketing presence in Twitter

I thought this would be a good way of watching the most dynamic of comparisons. Watching the trends in conversations in Twitter is pretty dynamic I think.

If I was the President of CIPR - this would be a worry

Following on from where PR is in the Gartner Hype Cycle, I had a look at the trends for online PR.

Its not all that comfortable when you look at how marketing has been doing recently using BlogPulse.



Watching how the industry is competing online might be one of the things that the CIPR statistical people might be reporting to its members.

I think it might be a good idea.

Online PR Hypecycle - where are we?

I have been wondering where online PR has got to in the Gartner Hype Cycle.
It would be nice to believe that it has already arrived in mainstream practice in the UK.

But, I don't think so.




The tale begins with the 1995 CIPR annual conference in, I think, Warwick when Jon White, Reggie Watts and I expressed opinions about the future of PR. We were sked to look ten year out. Reggie and Jon were about right with CSR and the role of PR in management. I, on the other hand was about five years to ambitious.


The CIPR/PRCA Internet Commission did brilliant work only to be sidelined by the year 2000 internet bubble crash and it was only when the 'Web 2.0' hype began to bite that the PR industry began to look at online PR again.

Now, with to research published by the European Interactive Advertising Association (EIAA) showing that 25-34 year olds spend 13.9 hours per week online (up from 13 in 2007), 36% are heavy daily users and almost two thirds are online daily there is considerable incentive for companies to shed Web 1.0 and take part.

Even more compelling is the latest AOP research, released this week which shows business websites emerging as a highly valued and indispensable source of information for business decision makers. The survey, conducted in association with IPSOS Mori, revealed:

* B2B websites are ubiquitous among business decision makers, 97% stated that this is the media most used for work
* 60% ranked business websites as an essential source of information in their work
* 60% consider business websites as providing information that they couldn’t get elsewhere

Of course, there is a lot more similar data showing how important online selling, marketing and opinion forming has become. The evidence is now overwhelming and inside many companies is the uncomfortable feeling that they are now very wrong footed.

But we are not there yet. The demand is building but not compelling.

The focus is on how the economy will survive the 'Festive Season' and then the cold reality of January will make people look much harder at where their future lies and that is when there will be the big change.

PR Facing $10 billion plunge?

There is a hush about the impact of the Crunch on PR.

We have to face up to it.

Yes there are opportunities but if you take out a quarter of the revenue that supports any industry sector, it has an effect all round.

In February 2009, the number of advertising pages in print publications will be reduced. The pre-Christmas advertising will have gone and sales advertising will have vanished.

It is hard to guess by how much the decline will be but let’s be optimistic (as I think this week’s media reports have been) – print media ad spend will decline 50% across Europe in 2009.

When will the recovery come? April? June? September? Or, as media report in the UK has it, perhaps 2012 (http://xrl.in/12n8).

And if by then, the newspapers and magazines have not found a new way of engaging readers they will be dead or next to it?

While we are imagining this Armageddon, let’s call it 50% fewer editorial pages.
Perhaps 50% of PR activity is predicated on contributing to editorial pages.

As the blood spreads on the editorial carpets so too does it spread to the miltch cow 25% of the PR industry. That is 25% of Press Relations PR jobs, revenues, support and so forth.

In the UK this represents a loss of PR sector revenues amounting to about £0.3 billion (for the Global Alliance lets imagine perhaps $10 billion worldwide).

This is a big issue for the industry and its associations. We do need to start talking about it.