Thursday, December 18, 2008

Watch the growth and growth of online retail

This weeks news from IMRG Capgemini was a real problem for the news media agenda. Far from a slump in retail sales, economic Armageddon and the end of markets as we know them, retailing is fine and, especially online, is doing better than ever.

Growth in online spending for November surged 26% on October and was up 16% on last year.

But I think there is a now a good case for following the rate of growth of online retailing as a major economic indicator.

What is happening online does not suite the doom-sayers and the media agenda which is a bit of a problem for them. The bloggers and people with an interest in what is really happening in retailing have a different agenda.

The propostion that retailing is dead is not helpful or true. There is a adjustment and the markets are uncertain but this downturn like many before it is now over-hyped.

Unemployment levels will continue to grow and others will join Woolworths. The news media will have a bleak agenda and market will adjust but these are symptoms of what was happening in the real economy months ago.

What we are seeing online is the real economy. This week we have see a change in the growth curve and it is up.

I think that this curve will be the one to watch this year if we want to understand what is happening in the real economy.